Pronòstico de la Actividad Edificadora en Colombia para el Ùltimo Semestre de 2019

Abstract

In Colombia, the construction sector is considered a lever of the economy, and given its importance it is a sector present in national development plans. Its growth is promoted through the creation of mortgage financing and subsidy systems for the promotion of economic development from the supply of housing, and as a response to the growth of needs due to population growth. Given the above, this paper proposes to make a forecast of the building activity; housing and civil works in Colombia for the last semester of 2019. Using information from the Economic Indicators Around Construction (IEAC) carried out by the DANE that collects information from 15 investigations, adjusted to international standards, a stationary behavior was observed, reason why which to build the forecast, a self-progressive statistical moving average (ARMA) autoregressive integrated moving average model that explains a variable through its past behaviors is applied. In this case, an adjusted behavior with 95% confidence was found for the months of June to December 2019, concluding that the use of this forecasting method is successful and allows short-term business planning that the use of this forecast method is accurate and allows a short time business planning.