Pronóstico del precio del arroz paddy mediante el modelo arima para Colombia en los años 1996 a 2018

Abstract

The central theme of this paper is based on forecasts of the price of paddy rice cultivation in Colombia for the years 1996 to 2020, the database was extracted from Fedearroz. Through the ARIMA model, foresee the price of rice so that growers can reorganize and make decisions about their crops. First, the crop divided by departments and height was characterized, additionally by areas that are distributed as follows: Bajo Cauca (Antioquia, Bolívar, Choco, Córdoba y Sucre), Centro (Caquetá, Cauca, Cundinamarca, Huila, Nariño, Tolima, Valle del Cauca), Costa Norte (Yondó – Antioquia, Atlántico, Cesar, La Guajira, Magdalena), Llanos (Arauca, Casanare, Paratebueno – Cundinamarca, Guaviare, Meta, Vichada) and Santanderes (Norte de Santander y Santander), second, the model was described and finally the prices were estimated for the last four months of the year 2019 and the whole year 2020. As a result of the price forecast which fell for paddy rice, suggesting that growers decrease rice crops and thus proceed to make decisions regarding price